Mr. Abheek Barua

HDFC Bank Chief Economist Mr. Abheek Barua Comment on RBI Monetary Policy..

April 7, 2023 TeluguSuperNews Leave a comment

Telugu super news, news, Hyderabad,April 7th,2023:RBI Comment:The RBI successfully delivered a hawkish pause in yester days’ policy announcement keeping the policy rate unchanged at 6.5% while keeping the door open for further rate action. The central bank kept its stance unchanged at “withdrawal of accommodation”, justifying it by still looming inflationary risks. Growth was surprisingly revised upwards to 6.5% for FY24 while inflation forecast for Q4 FY24 was revised down – most likely on account of base effects. We expect that growth could be lower at 6% this fiscal while there are upside risks to the RBI’s inflation forecast, especially given the impending risks around oil prices and the performance of monsoons.

Going forward, the RBI could go for “the higher for longer” narrative – staying on an extended pause in FY24 while tightening liquidity conditions. Therefore, short-term rates could remain under pressure over the coming months. For the 10-year yield we could see some pressure return once the governments’ borrowing program kicks in and a range of 7.20-7.30% is likely in the first quarter.

Mr. Abheek Barua, Chief Economist and Executive Vice President, HDFC Bank, commentary on RBI Monetary Policy

August 6, 2022 TeluguSuperNews Leave a comment

The RBI delivered a textbook policy announcement today – one that is frontloaded and aggressive in response to inflation that remains high while the growth momentum remains reasonably positive. Accordingly, the RBI kept its inflation forecast unchanged at 6.7%, sounding caution on uncertainty around inflationary pressures despite the recent moderation in global crude oil and metal prices. The central bank kept its stance unchanged at “withdrawal of accommodation” signalling yet again that the notion of stance is being defined by the liquidity in the system and in turn the overnight rate.

Unlike previous policies, the central bank also focussed on the resilience of external balances implicitly communicating its preference for not just a less volatile rupee but also perhaps some resistance towards very sharp depreciated levels of the rupee.

We expect the RBI to continue with its rate hikes in the upcoming policies taking rates up to 5.75% by the end of the year. The bond market rally seen over the last few days is likely to reverse and we expect the 10-year paper to trade closer to 7.3-7.4% by the end of the quarter as markets reprice in RBI action and the supply of both SDL and central government bonds this year.